How much exactly is the Nexus One line of Android phones worth to Google? The folks at Trefis have modeled Nexus One sales into their financial forecast for Google and estimate that it will account for nearly $20 billion of Google’s market cap (based on its target price pf $659 per share), accounting for 9.3 percent of the total. That is more than its estimated contribution of ad and search partnerships (5.1 percent), Google Apps (3.2 percent) or YouTube (2.4 percent). Only search ads account for more of Google’s total value (68.1 percent).

How does Trefis come up with these numbers? Trefis is an investing site which comes up with financial models for stocks which translate into interactive stock charts and price targets. If you don’t agree with their model, you can change some of the underlying assumption sin the drag-able charts and create your own model (see below). Trefis is assuming Google will sell 5 million Nexus One phones this year, and that the Nexus One market share will grow from 0.4 percent this year to 3.4 percent in 2016, when the iPhone will have an 11.5 percent global mobile phone market share (as shown by the olive-colored line above) and Blackberry will have an 8.2 percent share (green line).

That seems a bit aggressive, but as I mentioned, you can always change the assumptions to something you think makes more sense. For instance, if the Nexus One even manages to capture 1 percent of global mobile phone market share, it would add 2.44 percent to Google’s market share, or about the same as YouTube. The Trefis model takes into account other factors, such as the unsubsidized price and margins declining over time. Remember, even though HTC is making these phones, Google is the one who is selling them, both directly and through carriers such as T-Mobile (who are subsidizing the $530 unlocked price and offering them to consumers for $180 with a contract). The Trefis model projects Nexus One revenues to be:

2010: $2.8 billion
2011: $5.7 billion
2012: $8.5 billion
2013: $11 billion
2014: $14 billion

While it’s fun to play around with these numbers, nobody can really predict how successful the Nexus One family will be. And it is not safe to assume typical mobile phone margins since Google has other motivations for pushing these phones, namely to increase adoption of the mobile Web where it will make its real money through mobile search. Also, this model does not take into account the software revenues from all the other Android phones out there. It is only Nexus One. Trefis estimats that Googl eis making a $231 gross profit on each phone, based on iSuppli’ s$174 component cost estimate plus other costs such as warranty, R&D ($50), and HTC’s cut ($75). Google has publicly stated that the profits from the Nexus One are minimal. Yet, if two thirds of Apple’s market share can be attributed to the iPhone (as estimated by Trefis), it doesn’t seem like a stretch to think that Nexus One can become 9 percent of Google’s.

In fact, if you look at Google’s stock price on the day before the Nexus One was confirmed, it was $590, and it rose to $627 just before the official launch on January 5, adding nearly $12 billion to Google’s market cap in that time alone. Of course, there were other factors contributing to the stock’s rise during that time, but an extra $20 billion on top of Google’s current $185 billion market cap is not unthinkable. (The stock today is trading at $585, after the disclosure that it might be exiting the China market).

How much do you think Nexus One is worth to Google?

[techcrunch]

This generic-brand mobile phone offers oversize numeric buttons (1-cm wide) that you can read from several feet away – making phone calls nearly fool-proof. The phone was mainly designed for seniors with limited tech savvy, but it’s fine if you’re just looking for a really simple cell phone too. Let me go on the record now by saying If I lose my ability to use the latest high-tech gadgets when I’m an old man, please just put me out of my misery.

The 6380 Senior Mobile Phone ($75 USD) does actually have a few handy features, including a built in flashlight, and a giant “SOS” button on the back that can automatically dial a pre-set emergency number, and emit a loud warning alarm. It’s also got a minimal display with large on-screen fonts, and a whopping 128×60 screen resolution. Sign me up now!

Actually, the 6380 does hide a couple of modern features under the hood, including a digital phone book, SMS messaging, a calendar, alarm clock, games (I can only imagine how much fun those are on that screen), and an FM radio. FM? I wanted an AM crystal radio set and a Victrola built-in.

Oh, and I forgot to mention one thing. The 6380 phone only works on GSM 900/1800 bands, so it works everywhere in the world except the U.S. and Canada. Oh well, I didn’t want one anyway.

[technabob]

Burst is a concept projector phone designed to boost the functionality and mobility of the conventional touch phones. Burst can project images onto any type of flat surface from projectors mounting aside with its specialized software to deform and compress the touch space display.

The touch screen performs just like the traditional screens, but the operation takes place on the virtual projection space. Burst can project HD interactive full color touch spaces showing applications and menus, that opens in a lower touch space. The innovative user interface of Burst utilizes sound and motion sensors to capture as well as process user interactions inside the touch space.

Super functional applications are the key attribute of Burst. It supports revolutionary video conferencing which will help the deaf and hearing impaired aside from offering many other advantages. The innovative technology of combining a mobile device with a protection product has made it as functional and usable as a personal computer. Moreover, it is packed with various category games to make it a nice piece for all range of gamers. Other highlighted features of Burst include HD projected web browsing, document and media editing, video conferencing and online gaming. It can make user to send and receive calls, take pictures and video, download and listen to music and many more.

Designer : DJ German and Ryan King

[tuvie]

The xpPhone has a 4.8-inch touchscreen, GPS, notebook-specs, and runs a full-blown copy of Windows XP. Seriously. And while I'm still skeptical about the use of XP, the phone has come a long way since I saw it at Computex.

China's In Technology Group (ITG) has now posted an English-friendly page for pre-orders—there's no price yet, they're essentially seeing who's interested. If you are, you can choose a 3G module for your carrier's necessary frequency (AT&T, Vodafone, and Orange are listed).

Not only has the QWERTY-slider much improved cosmetically since I first saw a working prototype in June, but we now know the full specs (see below). They're crazy, no? Not listed is that the solid-state and standard hard disks are both included, for when you need to save power.

It almost sounds too good to be true, so I'll be watching this one closely. The xpPhone could either be one of the most powerful phones yet, or an almost one pound failure of epic proportions. I'll let you know when I find out more on pricing/availability—or any plans for an actual U.S (non-import) release.




[gizmodo]