[Investing] Amazon Is Still Eating eBay's Lunch
JP Morgan's Imran Khan surveyed some eBay (EBAY) powersellers to see how things are going.
They're going better, but not great. Amazon and other competitors are still running away with eBay's former customers:
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The good news: eCommerce strong in 4Q. For all of 2009 (though mid-December), our sellers experienced 18% growth in online sales on average. However, for the holiday season, Y/Y growth was an average of 25% for the respondents in our survey. As several other datapoints have also suggested a more solid 4Q, we are raising our estimate for US non-Vehicles GMV growth in the quarter to 3% Y/Y, from 1%.
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The bad news: we think eBay continues to lose market share. On average, the PowerSellers in our survey sold ~56% of their total online volume on eBay in 2009, down from ~65% in 2008. More than half of respondents ranked Amazon as an “Excellent” channel to drive sales, whereas only 23% felt this way about eBay. We think such market share losses are driven by a shift within eCommerce to a multi-channel environment. Thus, even if eBay isn’t losing volume, volume is growing faster at other third-party sites, driving market share declines.
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More bad news: PowerSellers’ opinion of eBay not improving. 54% of our respondents had a negative opinion of eBay, and 85% said their view of eBay had stayed the same or become more negative in the last year. By contrast, 69% viewed Amazon positively, and 54% reported their opinion had improved in the last year.
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Raising our estimates for 4Q’09 and F’10. We now expect 4Q revenue of $2.30B, near the top end of company guidance, and F’10 revenue of $8.96B, up from $8.80B. Our pro forma EPS estimate is now 1c higher for 4Q (to $0.40) and 2c higher for F’10 (to $1.67).


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Monthly Trend Report 2009
2009년 12월 : (12.2009_TRENDBIRD) Monthly Trend Report_Sample
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Annual Trend Report 2010 (샘플보고서 다운로드)
연간 트렌드 보고서 2010 소개 : (Intro) Annual Trend Report 2010
(01) "마케팅 / 비즈니스 / 컨슈머" 리포트 : (Marketing_Consumer) Annual Trend Report 2010
(02) "모바일 / 휴대폰 / 텔레콤" 리포트 : (Mobile_Telco) Annual Trend Report 2010
(03) "그린 / 친환경 / 대체에너지" 리포트 : (Green_CleanTech) Annual Trend Report 2010
(04) "인터넷 / 소셜미디어 / Web2.0" 리포트 : (Internet_SocialMeda) Annual Trend Report 2010
(05) "투자유치기업 / M&A / IPO" 리포트 : (Money_Funding_M&A) Annual Trend Report 2010
(06) "디자인 / 미래컨셉 / 디자인제품" 리포트 : (Design_Concept) Annual Trend Report 2010
(07) "아이디어 / 신제품 / 혁신제품" 리포트 : (Idea_NewProduct) Annual Trend Report 2010
(08) "헬스케어 / 바이오 / 의료기술" 리포트 : (Heatlhcare_BioTech) Annual Trend Report 2010
(09) "자동차 / 교통 / 운송기기" 리포트 : (Auto_Vehicle) Annual Trend Report 2010
(10) "럭셔리 / 패션 / 뷰티" 리포트 : (Luxury_Fashion_Beauty) Annual Trend Report 2010
Thanks, The Trendbird Team.
TRENDBIRD / Flacebo Corp.
(Future Trend Research & Consulting)